I’ve just finished updating my analysis for Volvo (the truck manufacturer-not the car company). While Volvo isn’t American (most RIM companies are US-based, with only two exceptions), I follow it closely because it owns Mack, one of the leading truck brands in the US.

Take a look at the chart below, which shows truck deliveries across Volvo’s major regions. The first thing to note is the industry’s cyclical nature-transportation companies tend to move as a herd when it comes to ordering more (or fewer) trucks. You’ll see that we’ve been in a downturn recently (just before the vertical dotted white line). But here’s what Volvo’s CEO said during the latest conference call, just a few days ago:

“…the increased hesitation among customers in North America to place orders given uncertainty in general. We are, therefore, as we speak, adjusting production levels for group trucks North America to minimize the under-absorption in production going forward.”

In other words, the recent shake-up in economic and market conditions has made Volvo’s customers more cautious. It doesn’t help that today, shares of $SAIA (a major LTL* operator in the US and competitor to $ODFL, which is part of RIM’s CofC**) dropped more than 30% after missing earnings estimates by a wide margin.

I’ll be watching Volvo’s truck deliveries closely-they’ll provide a useful signal for how deep this current downturn might get. This will also help me calibrate my ongoing analysis of $PCAR, another major player in the US and European truck manufacturing market.

(*) LTL = Less Than Truckload (**) CofC = Circle of Competence