As I updated my work on $EXPD (Expeditors; I discussed the company’s business in a prior post—here), I searched for their latest Q&A documents. Expeditors doesn’t host analyst conference calls, but you can send them questions that management periodically responds to. The most intriguing responses came from their January 13, 2025, Q&A.

What stood out was how a group of logistics specialists didn’t anticipate the tariff storm that was about to hit the industry. Here’s the exchange:

Question: Regarding Trump 2.0, what concerns are you hearing from customers? How are things different this time around? Has your perspective changed on the likelihood of increased tariffs and a possible trade war? And is there an upside with regard to additional complexity being good for Expeditors?

Answer: Our perspective is that shippers now know what to expect from a Trump administration. Tariffs were certainly a very real issue during his first term, when it often seemed that new rules were being issued nearly every day. But the reality is that many of the tariffs implemented during the first Trump administration were continued and, in some cases, tightened under the Biden administration. Historically, complexity has usually been very good for Expeditors. We are experts at helping our customers navigate complex environments.

At the time, they didn’t know that the tariff changes in Trump’s first term would pale in comparison to what followed. It’s a reminder of how unpredictable economic cycles can be—and how companies must adapt swiftly. Below is a chart showing $EXPD’s historical and forecast net margin. 2021 and 2022 stand out as exceptional years; 2025 is projected to align closer to their long-term average. So far, the current tariff complexity hasn’t been “very good” for margins, but it hasn’t derailed the company, either.