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: Why $HSY Defies Conventional Forecasting Wisdom In early 2023, Hershey’s shares were trading near $275—the same vicinity where RIM’s short position kicked off (the position has since been closed). …
: Forecasting $EXP Sales: How Home Starts and Industry Behavior Intersect Sometimes clients wonder why I devote so much time to producing (and updating) a wide array of industry-wide analyses. For example, you’ve likely seen …
: Did $EXPD Miss the Storm? Lessons from Their Q&A As I updated my work on $EXPD (Expeditors; I discussed the company’s business in a prior post—here), I searched for their latest Q&A documents. …
: From Shorts to Opportunity: Tracking $SBUX's Turnaround Journey $SBUX (Starbucks) finds itself in a turnaround phase, and management’s language on the latest conference call was telling. They repeatedly described …
: Census Bureau’s 2023 Data Points to Weaker Household Growth—A Closer Look I’ve incorporated the US Census Bureau’s 2023 National Population Projections (you can explore the full dataset here) into my estimates of new …
: Seeing Through Currency Noise: Interpreting $PEP Sales Trends In many of my sales charts for companies with significant international exposure, I include a “USD index”—like the orange line on the chart below. In …
: $MLKN and the “AI Arms Race”: Why Tech Spend and Furniture Sales No Longer Move Together While updating my analysis for $MLKN (MillerKnoll; the largest office furniture company in the Western hemisphere), I was struck by the sharp rise in …
: Why “Simple” Numbers Lie: Lessons from $FDX and the Art of Financial Analysis Why do I devote so much effort to detailed financial analysis of the companies in RIM’s CofC(*)? It’s because companies are constantly evolving, and …
: The Manufacturing Construction Surge: Signal or Noise for $FAST? As I work on my analysis of $FAST (Fastenal)—a major industrial and construction supply distributor specializing in fasteners and related maintenance, …
: The Cass Transportation Index: Interpreting the New Wave of Red A few months ago, I introduced you to the Cass Transportation Index. If you’d like a refresher on the various time series Cass releases, you can …
: Consumer Weakness and Tariff Pressures: Inside $HELE’s Latest Results Yesterday brought the first quarterly earnings release from $HELE (Helen of Troy), and the impact of tariffs was unmistakable. The company reported …
: The Surprising Upside for $CHH (Choice Hotels) in a Soft Market I’ve just finished updating my analysis on $CHH (Choice Hotels). The company franchises a wide range of hotel brands—including Comfort (Inn, Suites), …
: How Government Incentives Are Shaping $WM’s Capital Decisions Today, I’m deep into my analysis of $WM (Waste Management). On any given day, the company’s teams collect waste and recyclables from 21 million homes …
: The Magnificent-7 and the Rest: What History Suggests for Investors As some broad indexes (like the Nasdaq and S&P 500) approach all-time highs, I wanted to share a few thoughts on what’s driving these moves. We’re …
: $FLS and the New Oil Order: Why Middle East Turmoil Might Have a Smaller Impact Than Before As part of my ongoing analysis of $FLS (Flowserve Corporation), a global leader in the design, manufacture, and service of flow control …
: Consumer Confidence and RV Sales: Insights from Thor Industries ($THO) I just finished updating my analysis of $THO (Thor Industries), the largest manufacturer of RVs (Recreational Vehicles) in the US. The U.S. RV market …
: $PCAR Update: Where Are We in the Heavy Truck Market Cycle? I’ve just finished updating my analysis on $PCAR (Paccar), a leading heavy truck manufacturer in the US. Much like my earlier post on Volvo trucks …
: How Policy Shapes Tractor Sales: Insights from $DE (Deere) As Congress debates a new bill that includes stimulus measures for farmers, I thought it would be timely to share a chart from my recent analysis of …
: Housing Bubble 2.0: How the Lock-in Effect Is Shaping an Unprecedented Market Divergence The housing market in the United States presents a fascinating case study of how interest rate policy can create significant distortions in asset …
: Railcar Manufacturing: Why 2025 Forecasts Are Pointing Down It always amazes me how volatile railcar manufacturing in the US can be. The chart below tracks railcar deliveries (blue line), with additional lines …
: How Tariffs and U.S. Housing Trends Shape $MHK’s Outlook I’ve just finished updating my analysis on $MHK (Mohawk Industries), the world’s largest flooring manufacturer. $MHK produces and distributes a broad …
: Watching $WAB: Rail Metrics and the Ripple Effects of Tariff Policy I’m finishing up my update on $WAB (WabTec). The company operates in two main segments: Freight-which provides locomotives, components, and digital …
: Gauging the Downturn: Volvo, $SAIA, $ODFL, $PCAR, and the State of US Trucking I’ve just finished updating my analysis for Volvo (the truck manufacturer-not the car company). While Volvo isn’t American (most RIM companies are …
: Tracking $EXPD Through the Global Tariff Storm I’m working on Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. ($EXPD) today. $EXPD is a Fortune 500, non-asset-based logistics company providing highly …
: Why Existing Home Sales Are Stuck at 1995 Levels I’ve just updated my charts with the latest US housing price data. I’m sharing one here that highlights some key trends—see the first chart below. As …
: When Costs Surge: Units Impact and Counterintuitive Profitability Outcomes To provide additional context for the Portfolio Action [PA]* I recently shared with RIM clients, I wanted to explore a counterintuitive example of how …
: Why Valuation Always Matters: Lessons from $WMT, $KO, and $HD During a recent conversation with an investor, he said: “I’m not concerned about the high valuation of the company I’m buying today because it’s a …
: Cross-Checking Industry Trends: Lowe’s and Home Depot The reason I follow multiple companies within the same industry is, among other things, to cross-check whether trends observed in one company are also …
: Housing Starts: The COVID-19 Blip and What Comes Next As I work on valuations for $HD (Home Depot) and $LOW (Lowe’s), I regularly update my broader analysis of the housing sector. While I have a wealth of …
: Benjamin Graham's Wisdom Applied: Why I Differ on $HD I just finished updating my analysis on $HD (Home Depot), and the outlook for 2025 suggests it will mark the fourth consecutive year of declining …
: From Pizza to Tesla: When Founders Shape—and Shake—Brands Every time I’m tempted to think a company has a straightforward business model, I revisit my analysis of $PZZA (Papa John’s). Selling pizza might seem …
: Navigating Cycles: Insights from $OLN’s Volatile Industry Today, I’m analyzing $OLN (Olin), a company specializing in chlorine, caustic soda, vinyls, and other chlorinated organics, as well as epoxy materials …
: $SEE’s Product Care Segment: A Warning Sign and The Market's Overreaction $SEE (Sealed Air) is a name you’re likely familiar with, even if you don’t realize it. They’re the company behind Bubble Wrap—the iconic packaging …
: Is Sleep Number ($SNBR) Feeling the Weight of Consumer Recession? When analyzing a company, understanding the industry it operates in is essential. Today, I’m focusing on $SNBR (Sleep Number Corporation), a company …
: What's Driving PACCAR's ($PCAR) Recent Sales Slowdown? I’m analyzing $PCAR (PACCAR Inc.) today, a leading trucking manufacturer in the US and Europe. Check out the chart below—it illustrates several key …
: Where Did the Cash from Operations Go? Today, I’m diving into my analysis of $PKG (Packaging Corporation of America), a company that offers an interesting case study in how businesses …
: Understanding Implicit IRRs: The Core of Rational Investing When you buy shares in a company, the price you pay carries an implicit Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Essentially, anyone who purchases shares—and is …
: Understanding Transportation Trends Through Cass Index Charts I’m writing a Portfolio Action [PA] to RIM’s clients and referencing the chart below. I’m posting it here so my clients can see a more complete …
: Fundamental Analysis Spotlight: $OI and Market Mispricing I attended the $OI (OI-Glass) investor day event and wanted to share some interesting insights. Look at the first chart below, which I pulled from …
: Is CSX's Growth Engine Losing Steam? I’m currently analyzing $CSX (CSX Corporation), one of the leading railroad operators in the US. Look at the chart below: the red line represents coal …
: What Trucking Tonnage Tells Us About Market Crashes and Recessions I was recently asked if a market crash can trigger a recession. In short: yes, it certainly can—and it did in the early 2000s. The chart below should …
: What Harley-Davidson's Financing Data Reveals About the US Consumer $HOG (Harley-Davidson) operates as two distinct businesses: a motorcycle manufacturer and a consumer financing provider. In fact, Harley-Davidson …
: Are Investors Overpaying for Growth? O'Reilly's SSS Under the Microscope When analyzing retailers' sales, it is necessary to adjust “same-store sales” (SSS) by the age of the square footage. This adjustment is required …
: Less cars but higher sales in real terms? Inflation confusion at play After finishing my $AAP (Advance Auto Parts) work, I’m updating my analysis on $ORLY (O’Reilly Automotive). The difference in performance between …
: Understanding long-term drivers for auto parts sales I’m working on $AAP (Advance Auto Parts) today, one of the top three auto parts retailers - more on the business later. Now I’m sharing two charts I …
: Valuation Distributions: Why 'Is the Market Cheap?' is the wrong question and how to use it to spot recessions Frequently I’m asked if I think “The Market” is expensive or cheap. I know the person asking the question wants a yes/no answer. Still, I must explain …
: Farm Cash Flow: The Hidden Driver of Agricultural Equipment Sales As I delve into my $AGCO [AGCO Corporation] analysis today, I’m reminded of the fascinating relationship between farm economics and agricultural …
: Market Prices vs. Fair Value: Why Today’s Quote Isn’t the Full Story When assessing a company’s long-term value, certain metrics can be misleading—and today’s share price often tops the list. Take $GNRC [Generac] as an …
: Recreational Boating Market Hits Recession-Era Levels The recreational boating market reveals some concerning trends (which might lead to buying opportunities in the sector). The chart below shows …
: America's Declining Motorcycle Market and What It Means for Harley Davidson Bloomberg is conducting a comprehensive series of special segments on $HOG [Harley Davidson], highlighting significant shifts in the American …
: Carter's 2025 Forecast vs. Reality: A Humbling Lesson in Long-Term Guidance Companies usually provide “guidance” for short term expectations. It helps when there are more complex changes in the P&L (for instance, after an …
: US Census Bureau Revisions Shrink America's Youngest Population: Implications for Carter's Future Market When I’m working on $CRI [Carter’s], I need to update the forecasted population growth for the “zero to 5” segment in the US (done by the US Census …
: Glass Half Full: OI's Strategic Pivot Promises Value Amid Historic Low P/E Never underestimate how much money CEOs can burn (and still be paid millions to do so!). Below is my check for Capex for $OI [OI-Glass], the biggest …
: Stanley Black & Decker: Sales Slump and Margin Collapse in the Post-Stimulus Reality The first picture below shows sales for $SWK (Stanley Black & Decker) - see how it is now below the mid-trendline (which includes the impact from …
: Stanley Black & Decker's Balance Sheet Battle: Unwinding Pandemic-Era Inventory Excesses I’m working on $SWK [Stanley Black & Decker] today. It is incredible to see what the pandemic did to key lines of companies' balance sheets. The chart …
: J.B. Hunt's Equipment Dilemma: Pandemic Expansion Meets Post-Boom Reality Look at what $JBHT management said during the last conference call: “…we still have really significant capacity that’s underutilized. And the cost to …
: J.B. Hunt: Share Price Defies Earnings Gravity - Market Optimism or Pandemic Memory Bias? For most companies, share prices follow short-term EPS (in other words, the Market doesn’t anticipate much—it just reflects what it sees “as of now”). …
: Fleet Age Dynamics: How J.B. Hunt's Minor Aging Shifts Drive Major Truck Purchase Swings I’m working on $JBHT [J.B. Hunt] today. It is incredible how relatively small fluctuations in the average age of a trucking company’s fleet …
: Trucking Tonnage Trends: What ATA Data Reveals About Economic Momentum Trucking tonnage data from the American Trucking Association (ATA) reveals a persistent sluggishness in demand for trucking services. Take a look at …