CofC: Consumer Staples - Food & Staples Retailing
CofC: Industrials - Capital Goods
Macro - economy - population - trends
CofC: Consumer Staples - Food & Beverage
CofC: Industrials - Transportation
CofC: Consumer Discretionary - Consumer Services
CofC: Industrials - Commercial & Professional Services
CofC: Consumer Discretionary - Consumer Durables & Apparel
: CHIPS Act, Data Centers, and the Shape of Policy-Driven Construction Booms In July of last year, I did a post on construction spending in the USA due to an abnormal spike in …
: Investment vs. Speculation: Why $AMZN's [Amazon] Whole Foods Deal Reveals the Difference When Amazon announced its $13.7 billion acquisition of Whole Foods in June 2017, the market greeted …
: A 1990s Redux? Comparing Walmart’s Current Valuation to the Tech Bubble Walmart's implied IRR A recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlighted concerns regarding …
: $FLS Share Price Surge: Nuclear Hype Meets AI Mania This past week, $FLS (Flowserve Corporation) released earnings that clearly illustrate how the AI …
: Government Spending and Mortgage Rates: Understanding the Connection That Matters One of the key variables for the housing market is the 30-year mortgage rate. It isn’t …
: When “Hedges” Hurt: Lessons from $GLD and $SLV Cycles Clients, friends, and anyone who knows I work with investments often ask for a view on the price of …
: Why $HSY Defies Conventional Forecasting Wisdom In early 2023, Hershey’s shares were trading near $275—the same vicinity where RIM’s short position …
: Forecasting $EXP Sales: How Home Starts and Industry Behavior Intersect Sometimes clients wonder why I devote so much time to producing (and updating) a wide array of …
: Did $EXPD Miss the Storm? Lessons from Their Q&A As I updated my work on $EXPD (Expeditors; I discussed the company’s business in a prior post—here), …
: From Shorts to Opportunity: Tracking $SBUX's Turnaround Journey $SBUX (Starbucks) finds itself in a turnaround phase, and management’s language on the latest …
: Census Bureau’s 2023 Data Points to Weaker Household Growth—A Closer Look I’ve incorporated the US Census Bureau’s 2023 National Population Projections (you can explore the …
: Seeing Through Currency Noise: Interpreting $PEP Sales Trends In many of my sales charts for companies with significant international exposure, I include a “USD …
: $MLKN and the “AI Arms Race”: Why Tech Spend and Furniture Sales No Longer Move Together While updating my analysis for $MLKN (MillerKnoll; the largest office furniture company in the …
: Why “Simple” Numbers Lie: Lessons from $FDX and the Art of Financial Analysis Why do I devote so much effort to detailed financial analysis of the companies in RIM’s CofC(*)? …
: The Manufacturing Construction Surge: Signal or Noise for $FAST? As I work on my analysis of $FAST (Fastenal)—a major industrial and construction supply distributor …
: The Cass Transportation Index: Interpreting the New Wave of Red A few months ago, I introduced you to the Cass Transportation Index. If you’d like a refresher on …
: Consumer Weakness and Tariff Pressures: Inside $HELE’s Latest Results Yesterday brought the first quarterly earnings release from $HELE (Helen of Troy), and the impact of …
: The Surprising Upside for $CHH (Choice Hotels) in a Soft Market I’ve just finished updating my analysis on $CHH (Choice Hotels). The company franchises a wide range …
: How Government Incentives Are Shaping $WM’s Capital Decisions Today, I’m deep into my analysis of $WM (Waste Management). On any given day, the company’s teams …
: The Magnificent-7 and the Rest: What History Suggests for Investors As some broad indexes (like the Nasdaq and S&P 500) approach all-time highs, I wanted to share a …
: $FLS and the New Oil Order: Why Middle East Turmoil Might Have a Smaller Impact Than Before As part of my ongoing analysis of $FLS (Flowserve Corporation), a global leader in the design, …
: Consumer Confidence and RV Sales: Insights from Thor Industries ($THO) I just finished updating my analysis of $THO (Thor Industries), the largest manufacturer of RVs …
: $PCAR Update: Where Are We in the Heavy Truck Market Cycle? I’ve just finished updating my analysis on $PCAR (Paccar), a leading heavy truck manufacturer in the …
: How Policy Shapes Tractor Sales: Insights from $DE (Deere) As Congress debates a new bill that includes stimulus measures for farmers, I thought it would be …
: Housing Bubble 2.0: How the Lock-in Effect Is Shaping an Unprecedented Market Divergence The housing market in the United States presents a fascinating case study of how interest rate …
: Railcar Manufacturing: Why 2025 Forecasts Are Pointing Down It always amazes me how volatile railcar manufacturing in the US can be. The chart below tracks …
: How Tariffs and U.S. Housing Trends Shape $MHK’s Outlook I’ve just finished updating my analysis on $MHK (Mohawk Industries), the world’s largest flooring …
: Watching $WAB: Rail Metrics and the Ripple Effects of Tariff Policy I’m finishing up my update on $WAB (WabTec). The company operates in two main segments: …
: Gauging the Downturn: Volvo, $SAIA, $ODFL, $PCAR, and the State of US Trucking I’ve just finished updating my analysis for Volvo (the truck manufacturer-not the car company). …
: Tracking $EXPD Through the Global Tariff Storm I’m working on Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. ($EXPD) today. $EXPD is a Fortune …
: Why Existing Home Sales Are Stuck at 1995 Levels I’ve just updated my charts with the latest US housing price data. I’m sharing one here that …
: When Costs Surge: Units Impact and Counterintuitive Profitability Outcomes To provide additional context for the Portfolio Action [PA]* I recently shared with RIM clients, I …
: Why Valuation Always Matters: Lessons from $WMT, $KO, and $HD During a recent conversation with an investor, he said: “I’m not concerned about the …
: Cross-Checking Industry Trends: Lowe’s and Home Depot The reason I follow multiple companies within the same industry is, among other things, to …
: Housing Starts: The COVID-19 Blip and What Comes Next As I work on valuations for $HD (Home Depot) and $LOW (Lowe’s), I regularly update my broader …
: Benjamin Graham's Wisdom Applied: Why I Differ on $HD I just finished updating my analysis on $HD (Home Depot), and the outlook for 2025 suggests it will …
: From Pizza to Tesla: When Founders Shape—and Shake—Brands Every time I’m tempted to think a company has a straightforward business model, I revisit my …
: Navigating Cycles: Insights from $OLN’s Volatile Industry Today, I’m analyzing $OLN (Olin), a company specializing in chlorine, caustic soda, vinyls, …
: $SEE’s Product Care Segment: A Warning Sign and The Market's Overreaction $SEE (Sealed Air) is a name you’re likely familiar with, even if you don’t realize it. They’re the …
: Is Sleep Number ($SNBR) Feeling the Weight of Consumer Recession? When analyzing a company, understanding the industry it operates in is essential. Today, I’m …
: What's Driving PACCAR's ($PCAR) Recent Sales Slowdown? I’m analyzing $PCAR (PACCAR Inc.) today, a leading trucking manufacturer in the US and Europe. …
: Where Did the Cash from Operations Go? Today, I’m diving into my analysis of $PKG (Packaging Corporation of America), a company that offers …
: Understanding Implicit IRRs: The Core of Rational Investing When you buy shares in a company, the price you pay carries an implicit Internal Rate of Return …
: Understanding Transportation Trends Through Cass Index Charts I’m writing a Portfolio Action [PA] to RIM’s clients and referencing the chart below. …
: Fundamental Analysis Spotlight: $OI and Market Mispricing I attended the $OI (OI-Glass) investor day event and wanted to share some interesting insights. Look …
: Is CSX's Growth Engine Losing Steam? I’m currently analyzing $CSX (CSX Corporation), one of the leading railroad operators in the …
: What Trucking Tonnage Tells Us About Market Crashes and Recessions I was recently asked if a market crash can trigger a recession. In short: yes, it certainly can—and …
: What Harley-Davidson's Financing Data Reveals About the US Consumer $HOG (Harley-Davidson) operates as two distinct businesses: a motorcycle manufacturer and a consumer …
: Are Investors Overpaying for Growth? O'Reilly's SSS Under the Microscope When analyzing retailers' sales, it is necessary to adjust “same-store sales” (SSS) by …
: Less cars but higher sales in real terms? Inflation confusion at play After finishing my $AAP (Advance Auto Parts) work, I’m updating my analysis on $ORLY …
: Understanding long-term drivers for auto parts sales I’m working on $AAP (Advance Auto Parts) today, one of the top three auto parts retailers - …
: Valuation Distributions: Why 'Is the Market Cheap?' is the wrong question and how to use it to spot recessions Frequently I’m asked if I think “The Market” is expensive or cheap. I know the …
: Farm Cash Flow: The Hidden Driver of Agricultural Equipment Sales As I delve into my $AGCO [AGCO Corporation] analysis today, I’m reminded of the fascinating …
: Market Prices vs. Fair Value: Why Today’s Quote Isn’t the Full Story When assessing a company’s long-term value, certain metrics can be misleading—and today’s share …
: Recreational Boating Market Hits Recession-Era Levels The recreational boating market reveals some concerning trends (which might lead to buying …
: America's Declining Motorcycle Market and What It Means for Harley Davidson Bloomberg is conducting a comprehensive series of special segments on $HOG [Harley Davidson], …
: Carter's 2025 Forecast vs. Reality: A Humbling Lesson in Long-Term Guidance Companies usually provide “guidance” for short term expectations. It helps when there …
: US Census Bureau Revisions Shrink America's Youngest Population: Implications for Carter's Future Market When I’m working on $CRI [Carter’s], I need to update the forecasted population growth …
: Glass Half Full: OI's Strategic Pivot Promises Value Amid Historic Low P/E Never underestimate how much money CEOs can burn (and still be paid millions to do so!). Below is my …
: Stanley Black & Decker: Sales Slump and Margin Collapse in the Post-Stimulus Reality The first picture below shows sales for $SWK (Stanley Black & Decker) - see how it is now below …
: Stanley Black & Decker's Balance Sheet Battle: Unwinding Pandemic-Era Inventory Excesses I’m working on $SWK [Stanley Black & Decker] today. It is incredible to see what the …
: J.B. Hunt's Equipment Dilemma: Pandemic Expansion Meets Post-Boom Reality Look at what $JBHT management said during the last conference call: “…we still have …
: J.B. Hunt: Share Price Defies Earnings Gravity - Market Optimism or Pandemic Memory Bias? For most companies, share prices follow short-term EPS (in other words, the Market doesn’t …
: Fleet Age Dynamics: How J.B. Hunt's Minor Aging Shifts Drive Major Truck Purchase Swings I’m working on $JBHT [J.B. Hunt] today. It is incredible how relatively small fluctuations in …
: Trucking Tonnage Trends: What ATA Data Reveals About Economic Momentum Trucking tonnage data from the American Trucking Association (ATA) reveals a persistent sluggishness …